A2P SMS in 2025–2029: A Rapidly Changing Landscape Every MNO Must Prepare For

A2P SMS has long been the backbone of enterprise messaging for well over a decade, but the landscape is shifting, and that too faster than ever. The once resilient revenue stream is facing unprecedented pressure as traffic and spend figures begin their sharp descent. Here’s what every Mobile Network Operator (MNO) needs to know to stay competitive in the next five years:

📉 A2P Traffic Is Dropping -- Fast Global A2P SMS traffic is projected to decline significantly in the coming years, with the most pronounced reductions expected in regions such as Asia and Latin America.

By 2025 alone, traffic lost to alternative channels is forecasted to reach nearly three times the size of the entire international A2P SMS market. This scale of migration highlights how quickly enterprise messaging behaviour is changing.

The more striking insight, however, is that nearly 60% of this declining international traffic is fraud-free, yet it continues to disappear. This points to a structural shift that extends beyond basic route security or pricing inefficiencies, signalling a fundamental change in how enterprises engage with SMS as a channel.

💸 A2P Spend Is About to Hit a Wall While traffic contraction is already visible, the more disruptive shift lies in how enterprise spend on A2P SMS is set to change. After years of steady growth, total A2P SMS spend is now forecasted to reverse sharply beyond 2025, marking a clear inflection point for the industry.

By the end of the decade, total A2P SMS spend is expected to fall back to levels last seen in 2018.

This shift will place increasing pressure on MNOs, who may find it more difficult to sustain brand investment in SMS unless pricing models, governance, and monetisation strategies evolve quickly. Rising costs make it harder for enterprises to justify continued SMS spend, while declining volumes directly impact operator revenues.

As a result, future competitiveness will no longer be driven by traffic growth alone, but by how effectively spend is protected, managed, and aligned with the evolving role of A2P SMS.

💥 Pricing Pressures Are Building International termination rates have increased sharply over recent years, fundamentally altering the economics of international A2P SMS. Between 2020 and 2025, average global ITRs rose by 300%, with further increases forecasted.

As pricing continues to rise, the gap between enterprise budgets and achievable message volumes widens. 

In this environment, some enterprises begin exploring grey routes or alternative channels in an effort to preserve budget. While this may offer short-term cost relief, it often comes at the expense of delivery quality, user experience, and network visibility.

Over time, elevated ITRs also increase incentives for artificial inflation of traffic and other fraudulent behaviours, further weakening overall SMS health. Unchecked pricing pressure does not just reduce volumes, it actually accelerates ecosystem imbalance.

🩺 Negative Markets Are Making SMS Sicker By Q2 2025, the global A2P SMS landscape shows a near-even split between healthy and negative markets. While negative markets account for a relatively small share of total traffic, their influence extends far beyond their individual volumes.

Traffic declines more rapidly in negative markets, and their pricing and dynamics have a knock-on effect across the broader ecosystem. As imbalances persist, performance degradation is no longer contained within individual regions, it begins to shape global expectations around cost, reliability, and deliverability.

If pricing pressures remain unchecked, a portion of today’s A2P SMS traffic is likely to be lost permanently. Once enterprises exit the channel under sustained cost and performance strain, re-attracting that traffic becomes increasingly difficult.

🚨 What MNOs Need to Do Today

The future doesn’t need to be bleak — but the role of A2P SMS will need to evolve.

✔️ Protect brand spend with smarter pricing strategies

✔️ Invest in firewalls and anti-fraud to keep operators attractive to enterprise traffic

✔️ Keep SMS viable for OTPs and mission-critical transactional messaging

✔️ Prepare for migration — where appropriate — without losing control

At Nexumtech, we empower operators to maximize revenue, secure their networks, and deliver reliable A2P experiences, even in the face of shifting economics and behavior trends.

A2P isn’t dead. But it’s evolving — and so should your strategy.